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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.